Can We Trust Opinion Polls?

Photo by Element5 Digital on Unsplash

Introduction

The recent failure of polls to capture Trump’s victory in 2016 has been the most criticised in the recent past.

People Land

The Voting Pattern of People Land

The Voter Score Chart

How do Opinion Polls Perform in the Two Scenarios?

Accuracy of Opinion Polls in the Two Scenarios
Voter Score Distribution in the Two Scenarios
Popular Votes Cast in Scenario 1
Popular Votes Cast in Scenario 2

The Takeaways

Footnotes (Technical Details)

Applied Econometrician (M.A. from University of Chicago)